The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, has expressed optimism about Nigeria achieving a crude oil production target of 2 million barrels per day in 2024. He emphasized that this ambitious goal is attainable through a combination of crude oil and condensates production, with the potential for even higher figures.
Attributing this expected surge to the government’s concerted efforts in combating crude oil theft and addressing security concerns in the oil-producing regions of the Niger Delta, Lokpobiri anticipates sustainable crude oil production in the country. He highlighted the administration’s success in eliminating fuel queues nationwide due to careful planning and execution.
Lokpobiri revealed the ongoing engagement with oil companies to discuss their plans for 2024, emphasizing the need to sustain the momentum and surpass the current production levels. He credited President Tinubu for providing essential leadership for a turnaround in the oil sector, aiming for increased production to benefit the national economy.
Reflecting on challenges faced in late 2022 and early 2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Maryamu Idris, Executive Director for Crude and Condensates at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), highlighted the impact on production. Nigeria embraced the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021 to address these challenges, leading to a more commercial approach to managing the nation’s oil resources.
November 2023, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated a total crude oil production of 1,466,185 barrels per day, comprising crude oil and condensates. The December 2023 production data is pending.
In FocusEconomics’ December 2023 Consensus Forecast report, Nigeria’s crude oil production in 2024 is estimated at an average of 1.36 million barrels per day, excluding condensates. The projection anticipates a consecutive increase in oil output for 2024, driven by improved security in the Niger Delta.
This anticipated rise in crude output is expected to address the country’s fuel needs, particularly with the forthcoming increase in production at the Dangote Refinery. However, potential turmoil in the Niger Delta remains a significant risk to this projection. The report also highlights Nigeria’s challenges, including low foreign currency reserves, rising inflation, and a devalued national currency (the naira).
Despite these obstacles, the forecast suggests an uptick in GDP growth for 2024, primarily fueled by expected boosts in private spending and increased crude oil output.
