The Nigerian Oil production has hit an all time high production of 1.49 million barrels per day, the highest in almost two years. According to Bloomberg, Nigeria is at the forefront of the surge in oil production among OPEC nations in October 2023, followed closely by Congo, Gabon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea.
The  Bloomberg’s findings, revealed that  the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) collectively produced an average of 28.08 million barrels per day in October, marking a modest increase of about 50,000 barrels per day compared to September 2023. However, Nigeria’s current crude oil production capacity is pegged at  1.7 million barrels per day, but the country has been unable to reach that level of production.
The report also emphasized Nigeria’s expressed desire to elevate its production to former levels to secure a higher quota. OPEC is currently evaluating the production capabilities of several of these countries, which could potentially lead to an adjustment in their output quotas for the year 2024.
Nigeria hit a peak of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the year 2000, but as of August 2023, it decreased to 1.1 mbpd. The years highlighted show fluctuations from 2.15 mbpd in 2000, reaching a high of 2.52 mbpd in 2005, then a gradual decline to 1.89 mbpd in 2016. But despite minor recoveries in 2017 and 2018, by 2022, production had dropped to 1.45 mbpd, falling further to 972,000 barrels per day due to increased theft in August 2022.
In 2023, data fluctuated from 1 mbpd in April to a peak of 1.26 mbpd in March, excluding condensates, meanwhile in September 2023, the country pumped 1.3 mbpd (excluding condensates) according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. But industry stakeholders seem to be divided over the real cause of the crude oil production decline in the country.
While some believe that crude oil theft is hampering production and has grown worse over the years, others accuse some operators and the NNPCL of driving a false narrative of crude oil theft to justify security contracts handed out to former militants in the Niger Delta region.
It is important to note that from 2024, Nigeria will adopt OPEC’s revised oil production quota – 1.38 million barrels per day, however, stakeholders believe that the country will be able to catch up to its production quota before then and OPEC could review the quota upwards.
